How values are estimated

Every value on BrickAtlas comes from one formula, implemented once and used by both the pages and the app so the two can never disagree. It is a model, not a price: it has no access to what sets sell for, and it says "estimated" everywhere it appears.

Sets

Start from a modelled launch price:

Then age it. Sets tend to appreciate after they leave shelves, steeply at first and flattening later, so the launch figure is multiplied by 1 + 0.06 × (years since release − 2), never below 1 and capped at 6×. Beyond 6× a set is in territory no formula sees.

Minifigures

A figure's estimate is driven by rarity (how many copies exist across every set it came in, and how many sets), its age, whether its theme is licensed (× 1.5), whether it came only in one small set, and whether it is a Collectible Minifigures blind-bag figure, which follow their own curve. A short list of well-known figures carries a hand-set estimate where the formula is known to be far off.

What it does not do

• It does not look at eBay, BrickLink, Amazon or any marketplace. There is no live price feed.
• It does not know a set's real retail price or its retirement date. "Likely retired" on a set page is inferred from its release year: most LEGO sets sell for two to three years.
• It is never used to rank sets by value. The rankings sort only on measured piece and minifigure counts.
• It is never presented to search engines as a price. Set pages carry Product structured data with no offer or price field.

Why publish an estimate at all

Because "roughly what is this worth" is the question most people arrive with, and a labelled estimate beside a link to real sold listings is a more honest answer than a confident number from nowhere. If a real price source is ever added, this page will say so and the estimates will be replaced where it applies.

Catalog facts (pieces, years, minifigures) are Rebrickable's and are not estimated. This copy of the catalog is dated 2026-09-01.